My Jeopardy! Strategy Advice To IBM - Part 7

Ed Toutant Report on Watson Jeopardy! Visit – September 17, 2010

HOW TO BEAT WATSON

When I visited IBM, I was asked what strategy I would use to compete against Watson, or how I would play differently against Watson.  From what I have seen, Watson is already good enough to beat elite contestants most of the time.  I assume he will continue to improve between now and the televised match(es).  I don’t think contestants like Brad Rutter or Ken Jennings are a whole lot better than some of the opponents Watson has already faced, so I would expect nearly as good results against them.  If I got to play against Watson, I would start with the assumption that Watson is heavily favored, and be prepared to take greater risks than usual.  I would expect Watson to beat me to the buzzer almost at will, so my best hope is to score points in categories where Watson is weak and won’t try to buzz.  I would try to identify which categories on the board are most likely to cause him trouble, especially the humorous subjects involving word play, like Daffynitions or Before and After. 

Watson obviously knows the strategic importance of Daily Doubles, used either offensively or defensively.  I would prefer to wait and find them later in the game when they are worth more, but it appears that Watson likes to find them early to prevent his opponents from getting them first.  So I know that I can’t afford to just play passively from the top to the bottom of the columns.  I noticed that Watson would often select the top clue in a column, essentially tasting it to see if he likes it, then go straight to the fourth clue, apparently searching for a Daily Double.  He gets a sense of what the category is all about before going to the high dollar value clues.  I would try to thwart Watson’s strategy by starting at the bottom and working up.  I think that could help me grab some of the high dollar clues while Watson is still learning what the category is really about.  I would hunt for Daily Doubles, partly in self-defense, because if I don’t find them, he will, and he tends to bet aggressively on them. 

Watson doesn’t have to worry about emotions and frustrations, but his opponents do.  I noticed a lot of frustration in at least one of the contestants in the practice matches.  That is understandable, but very unproductive.  I would try to prepare myself to expect the worst and not let it bother me when Watson keeps beating me to the buzzer.  I’d just keep plugging away and hope for a lucky break.  If my best laid plans were failing miserably and I found myself falling behind, I’d switch into desperation mode and start taking bigger chances and making more aggressive bets.  Being a great player is the best strategy, but sometimes great players can be beaten by a stroke of dumb luck. 

If Watson has a commanding lead, I would expect him to focus on defense and play very conservatively, not risking any big mistakes that could put his opponents back into contention.  If I were trailing by a large margin, I would hope that Watson’s conservative play might allow me more opportunities to buzz in than if he were playing more aggressively.