DYNAMIC STRATEGY ADJUSTMENTS
I believe that in order to maximize the chance of winning, any contestant (human or computer) must at all times have a sense of where he stands and how likely he is to win, so he can adjust his tactics to fit the game situation. When a contestant knows he has very little chance of winning, his best strategy is to be aggressive, take huge risks, and hope for some good luck. When a contestant knows he is the prohibitive favorite, his best strategy is to play conservatively and to eliminate all risks that could produce an unlucky loss. With enough self-knowledge, possibly augmented with knowledge of the opponents, it is possible for each contestant to continuously update their projected chances of winning the match, then make strategy adjustments to fit their situation. For human players, their game status rating will be very imprecise – probably no more than a few levels, such as 1) I’m kicking butt, 2) I’m holding my own, and 3) I’m so screwed. For Watson, his game status rating (let’s call it GSR) could be based on a much more complicated algorithm that takes many factors into account. Watson’s GSR might be expressed as a percent confidence that he will win the game. After each clue, Watson could recalculate his GSR and decide whether to make strategy adjustments. If it’s late in the game and Watson’s GSR is 95%, he might want to play conservatively, making smaller bets, not buzzing on questions if he’s not sure, and maybe even stalling for time. If Watson’s GSR is 20%, he probably needs to start taking more risks, hunting for Daily Doubles, and selecting the highest value clues.
Most Jeopardy! contestants have a gut feel for their own GSR even before the game starts. They might know from watching at home how well their knowledge compares to typical contestants. So they arrive at the Sony studios hopeful but realistic about their chances, some more confident than others. Much of the outcome depends on the categories and whom they are playing against. Defending champions probably feel more confident than challengers, but it’s mostly speculative until the game gets underway. Watson can be more certain about his GSR before the game starts. He has proven that he can beat some of the best players, most of the time. I assume that Watson will know who his opponents are long before the match is played, so he can spend a lot of preparation time studying their strengths and weaknesses. He knows that he is fast on the buzzer and won’t be nervous under the lights. So Watson can have a pregame GSR that reflects his confidence rating going into the match, just like the sports betting books in Las Vegas do. Maybe Watson learns that he will be playing against Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter, so he churns the data and projects himself the 43% favorite, with Rutter at 35% and Jennings at 22%. Then when the game board is revealed and Watson sees there’s a category called Prince Song Lyrics, he adjusts himself up to a 45% favorite. Then after each clue, Watson would recalculate his GSR, making corresponding strategy adjustments as needed.
I think it would be very entertaining to display Watson’s dynamic GSR projections throughout the game, so viewers could gain insight into his thoughts and strategy. This is very similar to the popular televised poker tournaments, where each player’s hole cards are revealed, along with their continuously updated probability of winning the hand. It would be interesting to watch the momentum changes and the impact of bold moves on the projected outcome.
In conjunction with the GSR probabilities of winning, Watson could generate a continuously updated projected final score for each contestant. I’m not sure if it would have strategic value or just be used for entertainment purposes, but Jeopardy fans love statistics, so it would be another way to impress them.
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